Even as seismologists across the world are busy finding a suitable model for predicting earthquakes to minimize the loss of life and property, a school teacher of Motihari in Bihar has developed a time-tested model for forecasting the time, place and magnitude of quakes. He has already forecast more than a dozen earthquakes including Tuesday's earthquake in Pakistan with almost 90 % accuracy.
Predicting earthquakes is a passion for Umesh Verma, a science teacher of M J K Girls' School, Motihari. His numerical models have attracted the attention of some NASA scientists who are taking interest in his work.
Verma, who is currently doing research in seismology from Patna University, told TOI here on Wednesday that several tools like radon emission, groundwater rise, electrical resistivity decrease, piezometric
effect on sediments and geomagnetic changes are being utilized by the geoscientists in earthquake prediction. The technique developed by him known as TEC (total electron count)-MMC (multiple magnetic component)-OLR (outgoing long wave radiation) method, is being considered the most advanced method of prediction. This technique was published recently in the International Journal of Science and Engineering, France. His work has also been published by the Journal of Basha Research Corporation, Malaysia, International Journal of Earth Science and Engineering, Hyderabad and the Journal of the Society for Photonics Institution of Engineers, USA.
The Bihar school teacher has also been working on astrogeophysical modeling, an indigenous technique which has, of late, revolutionized the earthquake prediction concept. Elaborating the technique, Verma said, "Solar eclipse and its gravitational pull on the globe is a probable cause of earthquake. During the eclipse, the joint pull of the Sun and the Moon on a certain point at certain crustal depth plays an important role in generation of the quake".
Verma is in regular touch with the leading seismologists of the world, including physicist F T Friedmann from NASA, geophysicist Dimitar Ozunov from New York, seismologist P Hollis Watts from Australia and Sergery Pullinet from Academy of Science, Russia all of whom have appreciated his techniques of earthquake prediction. He claims to have achieved more than 80% success in his efforts so far.
Verma pointed out, "An earthquake of magnitude 6 was likely to hit Indo-Nepal and Pakistan region on November 2. Prior to that an earthquake of magnitude 6-7 would hit Australia-New Zealand region on October 7. Other probable quakes are South America-Mexico (October 15), Japan-Burma (October 23), Japan-China (November 25) and Australia-New Zealand (December 3).
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